Kermack-McKendrick epidemics vaccinated

نویسنده

  • Jakub Stanek
چکیده

Institute of Mathematics of the Academy of Sciences of the Czech Republic provides access to digitized documents strictly for personal use. Each copy of any part of this document must contain these Terms of use. This paper has been digitized, optimized for electronic delivery and stamped with digital signature within the project DML-CZ: The Czech Digital Mathematics Library This paper proposes a deterministic model for the spread of an epidemic. We extend the classical Kermack–McKendrick model, so that a more general contact rate is chosen and a vaccination added. The model is governed by a differential equation (DE) for the time dynamics of the susceptibles, infectives and removals subpopulation. We present some conditions on the existence and uniqueness of a solution to the non-linear DE. The existence of limits and uniqueness of maximum of infected individuals are also discussed. In the final part, simulations, numerical results and comparisons of the different vaccination strategies are presented.

برای دانلود متن کامل این مقاله و بیش از 32 میلیون مقاله دیگر ابتدا ثبت نام کنید

ثبت نام

اگر عضو سایت هستید لطفا وارد حساب کاربری خود شوید

منابع مشابه

The deterministic Kermack-McKendrick model bounds the general stochastic epidemic

We prove that, for Poisson transmission and recovery processes, the classic Susceptible → Infected → Recovered (SIR) epidemic model of Kermack and McKendrick provides, for any given time t > 0, a strict lower bound on the expected number of suscpetibles and a strict upper bound on the expected number of recoveries in the general stochastic SIR epidemic. The proof is based on the recent message ...

متن کامل

The reversible catalytic model and the mathematical theory of epidemics.

In the early XX century, mathematical models were introduced into infectious disease epidemiology with the hope that formal procedures so successfully applied to physics and chemistry would be helpful in untangling complex causal relationships in epidemic systems. This hope is clearly stated by Kermack & McKendrick (1927) at the start of one of their papers on the mathematical theory of epidemi...

متن کامل

A Contribution to the Mathematical Theory of Epidemics

Your use of the JSTOR archive indicates your acceptance of JSTOR's Terms and Conditions of Use, available at http://www.jstor.org/page/info/about/policies/terms.jsp. JSTOR's Terms and Conditions of Use provides, in part, that unless you have obtained prior permission, you may not download an entire issue of a journal or multiple copies of articles, and you may use content in the JSTOR archive o...

متن کامل

A mathematical model of common-cold epidemics on Tristan da Cunha.

Records of seven common-cold outbreaks on the island of Tristan da Cunha are compared with the corresponding time courses given by the mathematical model of Kermack & McKendrick (1927) and with an alternative model that directly involves a constant average duration of individual infection. Using computer simulation techniques the latter model is shown to be preferred and is then closely matched...

متن کامل

Some simple epidemic models.

The SARS epidemic of 2002-3 led to the study of epidemic models including management measures and other generalizations of the original 1927 epidemic model of Kermack and McKendrick. We consider some natural extensions of the Kermack-McKendrick model and show that they share the main properties of the original model.

متن کامل

ذخیره در منابع من


  با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید

برای دانلود متن کامل این مقاله و بیش از 32 میلیون مقاله دیگر ابتدا ثبت نام کنید

ثبت نام

اگر عضو سایت هستید لطفا وارد حساب کاربری خود شوید

عنوان ژورنال:
  • Kybernetika

دوره 44  شماره 

صفحات  -

تاریخ انتشار 2008