Timing of Change in Criminal Offending around the Transition to Parenthood: Gender and Cross Country Comparisons for High-risk Individuals

Objectives. This article examines the timing of change in criminal offending relative to entrance into parenthood, in light of four competing theoretical frameworks (social control, routine activities, strain and cognitive transformation). Moreover, it analyzes whether criminal trends are gender or country specific. Methods. Using samples of high-risk men and women in The Netherlands and Norway, this study investigates monthly changes in offending probabilities around the time of first birth (5 years before, 5 years after). The smoothing splines technique implemented allowed for a flexible exploration of changes in offending probabilities for both pre-childbirth and post-childbirth periods. Results. Results show that the probabilities to offend decline ahead of childbirth for all individuals analyzed. The post-childbirth period is characterized by increases in offending probabilities. However, in these overall trends, the exact timing and magnitude of change differs by gender and country of residence. Conclusions. Results offer partial support for the cognitive transformation hypothesis as offending rates decline before childbirth. The post-childbirth period converges with assumptions of the strain theory (for males in particular), as offending probabilities increase in this period. Additional analysis investigating changes in property offending shows that economic strain does not fully explain the upward trend of the overall offending post-childbirth. Timing of change in criminal offending around parenthood