The evolution of the global aerosol system in a transient climate simulation

The evolution of the global aerosol system from 1860 to 2100 is investigated through a transient atmosphere-ocean General Circulation Model climate simulation with interactively coupled atmospheric aerosol and oceanic biogeochemistry modules. The microphysical aerosol module HAM incorporates the major global aerosol cycles with 5 prognostic treatment of their composition, size-distribution, and mixing state. Based on an SRES A1B emission scenario, the global mean sulfate burden is projected to peak in 2020 while black carbon and particulate organic matter show a lagged peak around 2070. From present day to future conditions the anthropogenic aerosol burden shifts generally from the northern high-latitudes to the developing low-latitude source regions 10 with impacts on regional climate. Atmospheric residenceand aging-times show significant alterations under varying climatic and pollution conditions. Concurrently, the aerosol mixing-state changes with an increasing aerosol mass fraction residing in the internally mixed accumulation mode. The associated increase in black carbon causes a more than threefold increase of its co-single scattering albedo from 1860 to 2100. Mid15 visible aerosol optical depth increases from pre-industrial times, predominantly from the aerosol fine fraction, peaks at 0.26 around the sulfate peak in 2020 and maintains a high level thereafter, due to the continuing increase in carbonaceous aerosols. The global mean anthropogenic top of the atmosphere clear-sky short-wave direct aerosol radiative perturbation intensifies to −1.1W m−2 around 2020 and weakens after 2050 20 to −0.6W m−2, owing to an increase in atmospheric absorption. The demonstrated modifications in the aerosol residenceand aging-times, the microphysical state, and radiative properties challenge simplistic approaches to estimate the aerosol radiative effects from emission projections.