Estimating Bicycling Demand
نویسندگان
چکیده
Simple and reliable tools for estimating and predicting the amount of bicycling in an area would be useful for a variety of investment and policy decisions. Previous efforts to develop such tools have typically tried to develop demand estimates from basic descriptors of the population, land use, and bicycling facilities of an area. This paper takes an alternative approach using the idea of deriving estimates of the likely range of total bicycling demand in an area based on census commute to work data. There are three important contributions. The first is a general discussion of the total amount of bicycling in the United States and how it varies across places, based on a number of surveys and some original data analysis. The second is the development of an argument that predictive models based on land use and transportation factors are unlikely to ever be very accurate or useful due to a number of intractable problems. Third, a simple model is developed for estimating a range of current levels of bicycling in a given geographic area, with reasonable and known accuracy and using easily available data. While this model stops short of predicting future bicycling levels, or demand on specific facilities, it is an important first step in reaching these objectives. There is such a high degree of local variation in bicycling rates in the U.S. that attempts to directly predict future bicycling levels without accounting for current levels are unlikely to be consistently successful.
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