Poleward Expansion of the White-Footed Mouse (Peromyscus leucopus) under Climate Change: Implications for the Spread of Lyme Disease
نویسندگان
چکیده
The white-footed mouse (Peromyscus leucopus) is an important reservoir host for Borrelia burgdorferi, the pathogen responsible for Lyme disease, and its distribution is expanding northward. We used an Ecological Niche Factor Analysis to identify the climatic factors associated with the distribution shift of the white-footed mouse over the last 30 years at the northern edge of its range, and modeled its current and potential future (2050) distributions using the platform BIOMOD. A mild and shorter winter is favouring the northern expansion of the white-footed mouse in Québec. With more favorable winter conditions projected by 2050, the distribution range of the white-footed mouse is expected to expand further northward by 3° latitude. We also show that today in southern Québec, the occurrence of B. burgdorferi is associated with high probability of presence of the white-footed mouse. Changes in the distribution of the white-footed mouse will likely alter the geographical range of B. burgdorferi and impact the public health in northern regions that have yet to be exposed to Lyme disease.
منابع مشابه
Phylogeographic Structure of the White-Footed Mouse and the Deer Mouse, Two Lyme Disease Reservoir Hosts in Québec.
Modification of a species range is one of many consequences of climate change and is driving the emergence of Lyme disease in eastern Canada. The primary reservoir host of the bacteria responsible for Lyme disease, Borrelia burgdorferi, is the white-footed mouse (Peromyscus leucopus), whose range is rapidly shifting north into southern Québec. The deer mouse, P. maniculatus, is occurring over m...
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The epidemiology of vector-borne zoonotic diseases is determined by encounter rates between vectors and hosts. Alterations to the behavior of reservoir hosts caused by the infectious agent have the potential to dramatically alter disease transmission and human risk. We examined the effect of Borrelia burgdorferi, the etiological agent of Lyme disease, on one of its most important reservoir host...
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