A Monte Carlo Simulation Method for Assessing Biotransformation Effects on Groundwater Fuel Hydrocarbon Plume Lengths

Biotransformation of dissolved groundwater hydrocarbon plumes emanating from leaking underground fuel tanks should, in principle, result in plume length stabilization over relatively short distances, thus diminishing the environmental risk. However, because the behavior of hydrocarbon plumes is usually poorly constrained at most leaking underground fuel tank sites in terms of release history, groundwater velocity, dispersion, as well as the biotransformation rate, demonstrating such a limitation in plume length is problematic. Biotransformation signatures in the aquifer geochemistry, most notably elevated bicarbonate, may offer a means of constraining the relationship between plume length and the mean biotransformation rate. In this study, modeled plume lengths and spatial bicarbonate differences among a population of synthetic hydrocarbon plumes, generated through Monte Carlo simulation of an analytical solute transport model, are compared to field observations from six underground storage tank (UST) sites at military bases in California. Simulation results indicate that the relationship between plume length and the distribution of bicarbonate is best explained by biotransformation rates that are consistent with ranges commonly reported in the literature. This finding suggests that bicarbonate can indeed provide an independent means for evaluating limitations in hydrocarbon plume length resulting from biotransformation.