Pii: S1367-9120(00)00019-5
نویسنده
چکیده
Precise zonation of the territory of China has been performed based on the active known faults, type of faulting and seismicity level. One hundred and forty seven seismogenic regions were de®ned, forming 10 larger seismic areas, and the seismotectonic characteristics in each one of them were investigated in detail. After checking for data accuracy and completeness of the shallow earthquakes (h # 60 km), the regional time and magnitude predictable model was applied and the model parameters were estimated. Based on the model applicability in the studied area, probabilities for the occurrence of strong (M $ 6.0) earthquakes during the next 10 years were calculated for each seismogenic region. Statistical tests have been used proving the superiority of the model in comparison with the time independent one, as well as in comparison with the actual earthquake occurrence. q 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.
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