Global Sensitivity Analysis-Enhanced Surrogate (GSAS) Modeling for Reliability Analysis

Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering Vanderbilt University, Nashville, Tennessee 37235, USA Abstract An essential issue in surrogate model-based reliability analysis is the selection of training points. Approaches such as efficient global reliability analysis (EGRA) and adaptive Kriging Monte Carlo simulation (AK-MCS) methods have been developed to adaptively select training points that are close to the limit state. Both the learning functions and convergence criteria of selecting training points in EGRA and AK-MCS are defined from the perspective of individual responses at Monte Carlo samples. This causes two problems: (1) some extra training points are selected after the reliability estimate already satisfies the accuracy target; and (2) the selected training points may not be the optimal ones for reliability analysis. This paper proposes a Global Sensitivity Analysis enhanced Surrogate (GSAS) modeling method for reliability analysis. Both the convergence criterion and strategy of selecting new training points are defined from the perspective of reliability estimate instead of individual responses of MCS samples. The new training points are identified according to their contribution to the uncertainty in the reliability estimate based on global sensitivity analysis. The selection of new training points stops when the accuracy of the reliability estimate reaches a specific target. Five examples are used to assess the accuracy and efficiency of the proposed method. The results show that the efficiency and accuracy of the proposed method are better than those of EGRA and AK-MCS.