Ignorant Influence Diagrams
نویسنده
چکیده
Influence Diagrams ( I D S ) are a graphic formal ism able to provide a compact representation of decision problems. IDs are based on the axioms of probabi l i ty and decision theory, and they define a normat ive framework to model decision mak ing . Unfor tunate ly , IDs require a large amount of in fo rmat ion that is not always available to the decision maker. Th is paper in troduces a new class of I D S , called Ignorant Influence Diagrams ( i iDs) , able to reason on the basis of incomplete in format ion and to improve the accuracy of their decisions as a monotoni cally increasing funct ion of the available informa t ion , I I D S represent a net gain w i t h respect to the t rad i t iona l IDs, since they are able to expl ic i t ly represent lack of in fo rmat ion , w i thout loosing any capabi l i ty of t rad i t iona l IDs when the required in fo rmat ion is available. Furthermore, I IDs provide a new method to assess the rel iabi l i ty of the decisions by replacing the t rad i t iona l sensit ivi ty analysis w i t h a single analy t ica l measure.
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