Dragon or Dinosaur? Nuclear Weapons in a Modernizing China

F ew leaders, if any, would make the decision to deploy nuclear weapons casually. Therefore, the fact that a country possesses such arms indicates that it has important uses for them. Nevertheless, analysts of contemporary Chinese foreign policy often dismiss the nuclear arsenal of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) as insignificant in size and passively defensive in purpose. Indeed, analysts of contemporary nuclear matters often fail to mention China at all. This article aims to correct these omissions by arguing that Beijing has long-term aspirations to improve its position in world politics, and that nuclear weapons play a fundamental role in its plans. Whenever one discusses long-term planning in foreign policy, one must proceed with caution. Chance plays such a large role in international politics that it is difficult for any government to plan its foreign affairs in much detail. One must remain aware that a nation’s domestic politics can overshadow its external intentions. The lack of reliable information about such basic matters as the Beijing government’s defense budget makes it all the more difficult to analyze China’s foreign policy. With those caveats, however, one may observe that there are patterns in China’s policies, media attitudes, and military thought. These patterns match those which an observer would expect to see in a country with China’s known goals and China’s known capabilities. These patterns have remained consistent for decades. Therefore, one may infer that the Chinese government is pursuing a coherent long-term policy, whether or not it has planned its future moves in detail.