Deceased donor transplantation in the elderly--are we creating false hope?

BACKGROUND Increasing numbers of older patients are developing established renal failure and considering kidney transplant as a renal replacement therapy (RRT) option. The probability of older patients actually receiving a deceased donor kidney transplant is unclear, preventing informed choice about pursuing the option of transplantation. We sought to analyse our RRT population to determine the probability of receiving a deceased donor kidney transplant in patients commencing RRT categorized by age and for whom there was no suitable living kidney donor. METHODS Patients commencing dialysis in our centre between 1992 and 2009 were identified. Time to listing on the deceased donor transplant waiting list and time to first deceased donor transplant were determined by Kaplan-Meier analysis for patients, categorized by age, with censoring at the date of first living donor kidney transplant, death or last dialysis. RESULTS One-thousand-five-hundred-and-thirteen patients were categorized into groups by age in years [1: <35 (n = 134), 2: 35-49.9 (n = 207), 3: 50-64.9 (n = 415), 4: >65-74.9 (n = 438) and 5: ≥ 75 (n = 319)]. The probability of being listed for deceased donor transplant within 1 year of commencing RRT was 75, 54, 27, 4 and 0.8% in Groups 1-5, respectively. If listed, the probability of receiving a deceased donor transplant within 5 years of starting RRT was 81, 48, 26, 8 and 0% in Groups 1-5, respectively. In Groups 1-4, 93% (n = 63), 87% (n = 65), 76% (n = 45) and 100% (n = 7) of the patients, respectively, who received a deceased donor transplant were alive and off dialysis 1 year after transplant. The reason patients who were listed did not receive a transplant was usually death on the waiting list. CONCLUSIONS The likelihood of being listed for transplant falls with increasing age at the time of starting RRT. Even for patients listed for transplant, the probability of older patients actually receiving a transplant is much lower than for younger patients, with only 8% of listed patients aged 65-74.9 years being transplanted within 5 years. This is partly the result of death on the waiting list but may also be related to organ allocation policies. Assessment for possible deceased donor transplantation involves a considerable investment in time and effort for the patient, as well as in health care resources, and a patient's decision whether to proceed with assessment should be informed by the kind of information we have produced. As there may be regional and national variations in practice, each centre should generate such data for use locally.