Uncertainty Representation Method for Open Pit Optimization Results Due to Variation in Mineral Prices
نویسندگان
چکیده
This study proposes a new method to quantitatively represent the uncertainty existing in open pit optimization results due to variations in mineral prices. After generating multiple mineral prices using Monte Carlo simulation with data on past mineral prices, a probability model that represents the uncertainty was developed by integrating multiple open pit optimization results derived from the mineral prices. The results of applying the proposed method to the copper-zinc deposits showed that significant uncertainty exists in open pit optimization results due to the variation in copper prices. It was also found that the method has a potential as a tool for classifying the estimation results of ore reserve based on confidence level.
منابع مشابه
Commodity price uncertainty propagation in open-pit mine production planning by Latin hypercube sampling method
Production planning of an open-pit mine is a procedure during which the rock blocks are assigned to different production periods in a way that leads to the highest net present value (NPV) subject to some operational and technical constraints. This process becomes much more complicated by incorporation of the uncertainty existing in the input parameters. The commodity price uncertainty is among ...
متن کاملResilient Decision Making in Open Pit Short-term Production Planning in Presence of Geologic Uncertainty
Short-term production plans are the basis for operational mine production schedules. They concentrate on making long-term mine plans operationally feasible. Furthermore, some variables such as ore grade and tonnage govern mine production systems and cause uncertainty in the supply of raw materials to the mills. Due to the quality variation of material, short-term production optimization is an u...
متن کاملA Comprehensive Study of Several Meta-Heuristic Algorithms for Open-Pit Mine Production Scheduling Problem Considering Grade Uncertainty
It is significant to discover a global optimization in the problems dealing with large dimensional scales to increase the quality of decision-making in the mining operation. It has been broadly confirmed that the long-term production scheduling (LTPS) problem performs a main role in mining projects to develop the performance regarding the obtainability of constraints, while maximizing the whole...
متن کاملImplementing a parametric maximum flow algorithm for optimal open pit mine design under uncertain supply and demand
Conventional open pit mine optimization models for designing mining phases and ultimate pit limit do not consider expected variations and uncertainty in metal content available in a mineral deposit (supply) and commodity prices (market demand). Unlike the conventional approach, a stochastic framework relies on multiple realizations of the input data so as to account for uncertainty in metal con...
متن کاملA practical approach to open-pit mine planning under price uncertainty using information gap decision theory
In the context of open-pit mine planning, uncertainties including commodity price would significantly affect the technical and financial aspects of mining projects. A mine planning that takes place regardless of the uncertainty in price just develops an optimized plan at the starting time of the mining operation. Given the price change over the life of mine, which is quite certain, optimality o...
متن کامل