A Probabilistic Approach for Mine Burial Prediction

Predicting the degree of burial of mines in soft sediments is one of the main concerns of Naval Mine CounterMeasures (MCM) operations. This is a difficult problem to solve due to uncertainties and variability of the sediment parameters (i.e., density and shear strength) and of the mine state at contact with the seafloor (i.e., vertical and horizontal velocity, angular rotation rate, and pitch angle at the mudline). A stochastic approach is proposed in this paper to better incorporate the dynamic nature of free-falling cylindrical mines in the modeling of impact burial. The orientation, trajectory and velocity of cylindrical mines, after about 4 meters free-fall in the water column, are very strongly influenced by boundary layer effects causing quite chaotic behavior. The model’s convolution of the uncertainty through its nonlinearity is addressed by employing Monte Carlo simulations. Finally a risk analysis based on the probability of encountering an undetectable mine is performed.