Patriarchal Demographics? China's Sex Ratio Reconsidered

Since amartya Sen published his pathbreaking research on the “missing women” of asia two decades ago (Sen 1989, 1990), the distorted sex ratio at birth and consequent masculinization of asian societies have become a growing focus of scholarly and media attention. across east, South, and even west asia, the masculinization of sex ratios has been proceeding at a pace unprecedented in recorded history. Christophe Guilmoto has documented male-heavy infant sex ratios that range from 112 boys per 100 girls in india, Pakistan, and vietnam, to 120–121 in China and tiny azerbaijan and armenia (the international average is 105; attané and Guilmoto 2007; Guilmoto 2009). Seeking to draw attention to this relatively neglected “revolution” of “rampant demographic masculinization,” Guilmoto foresees a future in which asian sex ratios will continue to rise over the next few decades, spreading in epidemic fashion, before eventually falling below 110 before 2050 (Hvistendahl 2011, p. 5; Guilmoto 2009). if high sex ratios are part of the world’s post-transition demographic future—they have already boosted the global sex ratio at birth from 105 to 107—how we understand them is critically important. the prospect of a “world without women” has attracted keen interest in the news media. Journalists, of course, add human interest by enlivening the scholarly narratives with provocative words and images. For example, in a recent commentary in Newsweek, historian niall Ferguson (2011) suggests that ernest Hemingway’s 1927 collection of short stories, Men Without Women, provides a preview of tomorrow’s asia. the stories feature gangsters, bullfighters, wounded soldiers, and killers—clearly what Ferguson envisions for asian men. Fundamental to the growing body of work on the sex ratio at birth (below, simply sex ratio) is the explicit or implicit notion of patriarchy. although rarely defined, the term tends to be deployed as an overarching concept to signify a fundamental power differential between men and