Increased leukemia rates in children from Belarus after Chernobyl

ISSN 0931-4288 No. 626-627, Feb. 7, 2013 www.strahlentelex.de English version Increased leukemia rates in children from Belarus after Chernobyl Alfred Körblein [email protected] February 2013 A trend analysis of data from Belarus finds a statistically significant 33% increase in the incidence of leukemia in children in 1987, following the Chernobyl nuclear disaster in 1986 (RR=1.33; P=0.004). The increase is much greater in children less than a year old (RR=2.68, P=0.0004). Another increase occurs in 1990-1992. The findings contradict the results of former studies and statements in two UNSCEAR reports that no evidence of an increased incidence of childhood leukemia in Belarus was found after Chernobyl. Introduction Excess rates of acute childhood leukemia are known to occur relatively soon after radiation exposure and even after comparatively small doses. Childhood leukemia is widely considered the most likely indicator of health effects from radiation exposure. However, following the Chernobyl exposures in 1986, several studies from Belarus [1], [2] reported no statistically significant increases in childhood leukemia in Belarus and its seven major regions (oblasts). This conclusion was repeated by the United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation (UNSCEAR) [3], [4]. Figure 1 below is reproduced from Ivanov et al [1]. It shows annual childhood leukemia incidence rates and corresponding regression lines for boys aged <15 years in Mogiljev and Gomel combined (lower panel) and in the remainder of Belarus (upper panel). The only significant increase is found in 1987, the year after the Chernobyl accident in 1986.