Relating Tropical Cyclone Track Forecast Error Distributions with Measurements of Forecast

نویسندگان

  • Wendell Nuss
  • Patrick Harr
چکیده

برای دانلود متن کامل این مقاله و بیش از 32 میلیون مقاله دیگر ابتدا ثبت نام کنید

ثبت نام

اگر عضو سایت هستید لطفا وارد حساب کاربری خود شوید

منابع مشابه

Systematic Approach to Tropical Cyclone Track Forecasting

The long-term goals of this project, which is being pursued in collaboration with R. L. Elsberry and M. A. Boothe, are to improve not only the quantitative accuracy of official tropical cyclone (TC) track forecasts, but also the qualitative meteorological utility of those forecasts. Needed improvements in the accuracy of official TC track forecasts include: (i) reducing the severity and frequen...

متن کامل

JMA’s Five-day Tropical Cyclone Track Forecast

Since 22 April 2009, the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) has issued five-day tropical cyclone (TC) track forecasts. This paper introduces these forecasts, including the method used, interpretation of the results obtained, forecast cases and future challenges. One of the forecast’s unique aspects is its determination of the radius of a 70% probability circle (PC) using the level of forecast un...

متن کامل

An Examination of Model Track Forecast Errors for Hurricane Ike (2008) in the Gulf of Mexico

Sources of dynamical model track error for Hurricane Ike (2008) in the Gulf of Mexico are examined. Deterministic and ensemble model output are compared against National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Global Forecast System (GFS) analyses to identify potential critical features associated with the motion of Ike and its eventual landfall along the upper Texas coast. Several potentia...

متن کامل

The Impact of Satellite-derived Winds on Gfdl Hurricane Model Forecasts

A series of experimental forecasts are performed to evaluate the impact of satellite-derived winds on numerical hurricane track predictions using the GFDL model. Over 100 cases are examined from 10 different storms covering 3 seasons (1996-1998), enabling us to account for the large case-to-case variability in the forecast results when assessing the wind impact. On average, assimilation of the ...

متن کامل

Evolution of Tropical Cyclone Characteristics

The long-term goals are to understand how variabilities in the large-scale atmospheric environment and the internal tropical cyclone structure influence tropical cyclone track and intensity characteristics and define how these influences differ between developing, mature, and decaying tropical cyclones. During the initial stages of tropical cyclone development, structure and track characteristi...

متن کامل

ذخیره در منابع من


  با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید

برای دانلود متن کامل این مقاله و بیش از 32 میلیون مقاله دیگر ابتدا ثبت نام کنید

ثبت نام

اگر عضو سایت هستید لطفا وارد حساب کاربری خود شوید

عنوان ژورنال:

دوره   شماره 

صفحات  -

تاریخ انتشار 2016