Loading the Dice in Favour of the Farmer: Reducing the Risk of Adopting Agronomic Innovations

Agricultural development projects frequently promote new crop production technologies for adoption at scale on the basis of research and pilot studies in a limited number of contexts. The performance of these production technologies is often variable and dependent on context. Using an example from the Agroforestry for Food Security Project in Malawi, that promoted agroforestry technologies for soil fertility enhancement, we explore the nature and implications of variation in performance across farmers. Mean effects of these technologies, measured by differences in maize yield between agroforestry and sole maize plots, were modest but positive. However, there was large variation in those differences, some explained by altitude, plot management and fertilizer use but with much unexplained. This represents risk to farmers. Those communicating with farmers need to be honest and clear about this risk. It can be reduced by explanation in terms of contextual factors. This should be an aim of research that can often be embedded in scaling up the promotion of agronomic innovations.