Model-based scenarios of Mediterranean droughts

نویسندگان

  • M. Weiß
  • M. Flörke
چکیده

This study examines the change in current 100year hydrological drought frequencies in the Mediterranean in comparison to the 2070s as simulated by the global model WaterGAP. The analysis considers socio-economic and climate changes as indicated by the IPCC scenarios A2 and B2 and the global general circulation model ECHAM4. Under these conditions today’s 100-year drought is estimated to occur 10 times more frequently in the future over a large part of the Northern Mediterranean while in North Africa, today’s 100-year drought will occur less frequently. Water abstractions are shown to play a minor role in comparison to the impact of climate change, but can intensify the situation.

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تاریخ انتشار 2008