Sub-Critical Nuclear Tests: An Option for India?

As India seeks to develop and maintain its nuclear weapons arsenal, it faces the critical question of how to ensure the reliability and safety of its nuclear weapons, especially as they age, in the absence of full-fledged nuclear explosive tests. Further, India must decide how to increase the yield (or decrease the yield, as needed) and reduce the weights of its existing weapons designs—that is, improve the technical quality and effectiveness of its weapons. India has three obvious choices regarding testing: do no more tests of any kind, break its self-imposed moratorium and conduct full explosive nuclear tests, or continue to develop and refine existing designs via sub-critical tests.2 This paper presents an analysis of these three options and concludes that sub-critical tests are the most likely route that India will adopt in the near term. Given this possibility, the paper details some recommendations that could help ensure greater transparency in the conduct of future Indian sub-critical tests. The use of sub-critical tests is preferable to full-scale nuclear explosive tests and could slow the further proliferation of nuclear weapons in South Asia, as new weapons development is more difficult without full explosive tests. The ideal situation, of course, is that India desist Gaurav Rajen is an independent consultant based in Albuquerque, New Mexico. He studies nuclear nonproliferation issues and regional environmental cooperation in South Asia. His current research includes studies on the implications of tactical nuclear weapons development in South Asia, and nuclear confidence-building measures in South Asia that could prevent inadvertent nuclear war.1