Status quo stochastic projections for bigeye, skipjack and yellowfin tunas
نویسندگان
چکیده
We assess the potential consequences of recent (2012) fishing conditions on the future biological status of the three tropical tuna stocks, based upon the new tropical tuna stock assessments. Projected status in 2032 is reported relative to spawning biomass and fishing mortality reference points in absolute terms (as a median of the projection outcomes) and in probabilistic terms. Here, we have used a single assessment model run (the reference case model) from which to project future stock status. Only uncertainty arising from future recruitment scenarios (assumed to be consistent with actual recruitments estimated over the period 2002-2011, or to follow the estimated stock recruitment relationship with randomly selected deviates from a longer time period) is therefore captured in results. Under 2012 conditions, stochastic projection results indicate: BET: dependent upon the recruitment assumption, the stock was either very likely (>90%; long-term recruitment deviate assumption) or unlikely (<25%; recent recruitment assumption) to fall below both the LRP and SBMSY levels by 2032. Under both recruitment assumptions, it was virtually certain (>99%) that fishing mortality would be above the FMSY level in 2032. SKJ: it was exceptionally unlikely (<1%) that the skipjack stock would fall below either the limit reference point level or SBMSY level by 2032, or that fishing mortality will increase above FMSY levels, under either future recruitment assumption. YFT: it was exceptionally unlikely (<1%) that the yellowfin stock would fall below the limit reference point level or that fishing mortality would increase above the FMSY level by 2032, and dependent upon the future recruitment assumption, it was exceptionally unlikely (<1%; long-term recruitment deviate assumption) or very unlikely (<10%; recent recruitment assumption) to fall below SBMSY.
منابع مشابه
Inter-american Tropical Tuna Commission Scientific Working Group 2 Meeting Review of Stock Assessments
AGENDA 1. Welcome, introductions, consideration of agenda 2. Review of stock assessments: a. Methods b. Species composition sampling progress c. Results i. Yellowfin ii. Skipjack iii. Bigeye iv. Bluefin (paper only) v. Blue marlin vi. Albacore (paper only) vii. Others 3. Ecosystem modeling 4. Summary and recommendations 5. Other business 6. Adjournment DOCUMENTS A1 The surface fishery for tunas...
متن کاملBehavioral Study of Small Bigeye, Yellowfin and Skipjack Tunas Associated with Drifting Fads Using Ultrasonic Coded Transmitter in the Central Pacific Ocean
متن کامل
Inter-american Tropical Tuna Commission Third Meeting of the Scientific Working Group Review of Stock Assessments Chairman’s Report (revised)
A1 Draft: The fishery for tunas and tuna-like fishes in the eastern Pacific Ocean in 2001, and outlook for 2002 A2 Draft: Status of yellowfin tuna in the eastern Pacific Ocean in 2001 and outlook for 2002 A3 Draft: Status of skipjack tuna in the eastern Pacific Ocean in 2001 and outlook for 2002 A4 Draft: Status of bigeye tuna in the eastern Pacific Ocean in 2001 and outlook for 2002 A5 Draft: ...
متن کاملPilot research on species composition of Korean purse seine catch at cannery
A preliminary study on species composition of a Korean purse seine catch landed at cannery was conducted in April 2011. In the cannery, all tuna catch are sliding through a sorting grid panel that filters and drops fish in the buckets by size class (above 9 kg, 3.4-9 kg, 1.8-3.4 kg, 1.4-1.8 kg and below 1.4 kg). In cannery processing, species sorting was made for skipjack and yellowfin tuna onl...
متن کاملSCIENTIFIC COMMITTEE FOURTH REGULAR SESSION 11-22 August 2008 Port Moresby, Papua New Guinea ACOUSTIC IMAGING, VISUAL OBSERVATIONS, AND OTHER INFORMATION USED FOR CLASSIFICATION OF TUNA AGGREGATIONS ASSOCIATED WITH FLOATING OBJECTS IN THE PACIFIC OCEAN WCPFC-SC4-2008/FT-IP-2
Purse seiners operating in the Pacific Ocean catch large quantities, in various proportions, of skipjack, yellowfin, and bigeye tunas associated with floating objects, in particular fish-aggregating devices (FADs). There is concern about the high fishing mortality rates on small bigeye and yellowfin tunas associated with floating objects from purse-seine fisheries, and the negative impact on su...
متن کامل