Uncertainty in model-based prediction of copper loads in stormwater runoff Incertitude des prédictions basées sur les modèles des charges de cuivre dans les ruissellements des eaux pluviales

In this paper, we conduct a systematic analysis of the uncertainty related with estimating the total load of pollution (copper) from a separate stormwater drainage system, conditioned on a specific combination of input data, a pollutant accumulationwashout model and measurements (runoff volumes and pollutant masses). We use the generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) methodology and generate posterior parameter distributions that result in model outputs encompassing a significant number of the highly variable measurements. Given the applied pollution accumulation-washout model and a total of 57 measurements during one month, the total predicted copper mass can be predicted within a range of ± 50% of the median value.