Spatio-temporal evolution of volcano seismicity: laboratory simulations

The measurement and analysis of seismicity in active volcanic areas is the main tool used in volcanic hazard mitigation. However, seismic monitoring technologies have met with only mixed success in forecasting eruptive episodes. This arises because, although our understanding of the spatio-temporal processes generating the observed seismic signals has increased substantially with the wide scale adoption of new and improving technologies, such as modern broadband seismology and GPS, there is still no universally accepted quantitative physical model for determining whether or not a sequence of precursory phenomena will end in an eruption, or for forecasting the time or the type of eruption. Hence, most forecasting strategies rely on long-term observation and monitoring of the edifi ce, rather than directly assessing the fundamental micromechanics of the rock/fl uid interaction processes involved.