Discretization, Simulation, and Swanson’s (Inaccurate) Mean

نویسنده

  • J. Eric Bickel
چکیده

Original SPE manuscript received for review 5 October 2010. Revised manuscript received for review 3 February 2011. Paper (SPE 148542) peer approved 15 March 2011. Summary Swanson’s mean (SM) is heavily used within the oil and gas industry to approximate continuous probability distributions such as the log-normal. In this paper, we document the errors induced by this practice, which, as we show, has no theoretical justification for any distribution other than the normal. In parallel, we review methods to discretize continuous distributions and compare these methods to Monte Carlo (MC) simulation. We demonstrate that the best discretization methods have an accuracy equivalent to that of tens of thousands of MC trials.

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تاریخ انتشار 2011