Logical Patterns in Individual and General Predication
نویسنده
چکیده
Probability judgments about logical propositions have raised substantial doubts about human rationality. Here we explore the idea that people’s probability judgments often may not refer to the relative frequency of a set, but instead to the probability of an explanatory logical pattern given the data. This idea has been formalized by Bayesian logic (BL), predicting a system of frequency-based logical inclusion fallacies. The studies presented concentrate on comparing probability judgments about sentences logically relating two attributes of a class or an individual (humans, animals, artifacts). Although BL cannot model probabilities of individual predications directly, it can do so if one assumes that inferences are made about unknown individuals based on imagined samples. The results for general as well as individual predication show a high number of systematic inclusion fallacies in line with BL. Nevertheless, some deviations were found. In the General Discussion, a polycausal approach to inclusion fallacies is advocated. In addition, even if pattern probabilities seem to play a major role, it is suggested that extensions of the BL model may be needed to account for further aspects of real-life predication. Overall, however, even the basic BL model was surprisingly successful for predicting probability judgments about general as well as individual predications.
منابع مشابه
Rational and Semi-Rational Explanations of the Conjunction Fallacy: A Polycausal Approach
Conjunction fallacies (CF) have not only been a major obstacle in justifying the rationality of a Bayesian theory of belief update; they have also inspired a variety of theories on probability judgment and logical predication. Here we provide an overview of Bayesian logic (BL) as rational formulation of a pattern-based class of conjunction fallacies. BL is described here as a generalization of ...
متن کاملPredication of couple's affective intimacy on based self compassion, emotional dysregulation and early maladaptive schema
The aim of this study was to Predication of couple's affective intimacy on based early maladaptive schema, emotional dysregulation, and self-compassion. The research method was descriptive-correlational. The statistical population of the study included all married women in District 3 of Tehran, from which 350 people were selected by convenience sampling. Data were collected using the Marital I...
متن کاملVagueness and Plural Predication
This paper addresses the question of how to model the application of vague predicates like tall and bald to plural subjects like John and Mary and the men. In other words, we are interested in developing a logical analysis for natural language sentences like Mary is tall and The men are bald. In the past 30 years, much research has been devoted to finding the proper logical framework to model t...
متن کاملOn Building Abstract Terms in Type Systems *
This paper offers some historical and conceptual remarks on the philosophical and logical procedures of abstraction, based on an account of the notions of concept and function. In order to provide a complete analyis, one should start by considering Plato’s theory of Ideas, which provides the first interpretation of “abstract terms” in the history of philosophy1. The nature of the most general F...
متن کامل