Presidential popularity in a young democracy: Russia under Yeltsin and Putin
نویسنده
چکیده
In established democracies, voters often evaluate incumbents’ performance based on economic outcomes. By contrast, in young democracies leaders are often thought to seek support by exploiting nationalism, exaggerating external threats, and manipulating the media. Such ploys are believed to work because voters are inexperienced and unsophisticated. Using time series data, I examine the determinants of presidential popularity in Russia since 1991, a period in which leaders’ ratings swung between extremes. I find that Yeltsin’s and Putin’s ratings were, in fact, closely linked to public perceptions of economic performance, which, in turn, tracked objective economic indicators. Although media manipulation, wars, terrorist attacks, and other events had some effect, Putin’s unprecedented popularity and the decline in Yeltsin’s are well explained by the contrasting economic circumstances over which each presided. In some transitional democracies, the volatility of leaders’ popularity may reflect not the capriciousness of citizens but logical responses to economic volatility.
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