Achieving Replacement Level Fertility in Bangladesh: Challenges and Prospects

Bangladesh has been passing through a critical phase of fertility transition. The level of fertility started to decline since mid-seventies. The decline occurred at a rapid pace during the period 1975 to 1993/94. The total fertility rate was 6.3 in 1975 and decreased to 3.4 in 1993/94. However, since 1993/94, the level of total fertility appears to be unchanged at a level of 3.3, as observed from the BDHS 1996/97 and 1999/2000 results. However, during the period 1993/94 – 1999/2000, the contraceptive prevalence rate has increased substantially from 44.6 per cent to 53.8 per cent. The unchanged level of fertility despite a rapid increase in the level of contraceptive prevalence during the past 6 years, while the level of fertility still remains well above the level of replacement fertility, raised several questions: Does this indicate plateauing of the level of fertility? Is it consistent with the increased level of contraceptive prevalence rate during the same period? Is there any other factor associated with the level of fertility? Is it consistent with other measures of fertility? Is it attributable to the beginning of population momentum? This paper makes an attempt to address these issues of major concern to the policy makers and researchers.