Shifting ranges and conservation challenges for lemurs in the face of climate change
نویسندگان
چکیده
Geospatial modeling is one of the most powerful tools available to conservation biologists for estimating current species ranges of Earth's biodiversity. Now, with the advantage of predictive climate models, these methods can be deployed for understanding future impacts on threatened biota. Here, we employ predictive modeling under a conservative estimate of future climate change to examine impacts on the future abundance and geographic distributions of Malagasy lemurs. Using distribution data from the primary literature, we employed ensemble species distribution models and geospatial analyses to predict future changes in species distributions. Current species distribution models (SDMs) were created within the BIOMOD2 framework that capitalizes on ten widely used modeling techniques. Future and current SDMs were then subtracted from each other, and areas of contraction, expansion, and stability were calculated. Model overprediction is a common issue associated Malagasy taxa. Accordingly, we introduce novel methods for incorporating biological data on dispersal potential to better inform the selection of pseudo-absence points. This study predicts that 60% of the 57 species examined will experience a considerable range of reductions in the next seventy years entirely due to future climate change. Of these species, range sizes are predicted to decrease by an average of 59.6%. Nine lemur species (16%) are predicted to expand their ranges, and 13 species (22.8%) distribution sizes were predicted to be stable through time. Species ranges will experience severe shifts, typically contractions, and for the majority of lemur species, geographic distributions will be considerably altered. We identify three areas in dire need of protection, concluding that strategically managed forest corridors must be a key component of lemur and other biodiversity conservation strategies. This recommendation is all the more urgent given that the results presented here do not take into account patterns of ongoing habitat destruction relating to human activities.
منابع مشابه
Identifying Potential Climatic Refugia to Protect Populations of Goitered Gazelle (Gazelle subgutturosa) in the Face of Climate Change (A case Study: Central Iran)
Currently, conservation planning based on the future distribution of species is among the most important adaptive conservation approaches to reduce the negative impacts of climate change on species. In this study, by adapting an ensemble modelling approach, scenarios of RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5 and five global circulation models, the distribution of Goitered gazelle (Gazellea subgutturosa) under c...
متن کاملConservation Status of North American Birds in the Face of Future Climate Change
Human-induced climate change is increasingly recognized as a fundamental driver of biological processes and patterns. Historic climate change is known to have caused shifts in the geographic ranges of many taxa and future climate change is expected to result in even greater redistributions of species. As a result, predicting the impact of climate change on future patterns of biodiversity will g...
متن کاملModeling the current and future suitable habitat distribution of Fritillaria imperialis under climate change scenarios and using three general circulation model in Iran
Climate change may pose challenges to the conservation of plant species such as the Fritillaria imperialis that have narrow geographical distribution. In this study, the modeling suitable habitats of F.imperialis in Iran was done in the current condition and under climate change (2050). For this purpose, 78 species presence data along with 12 environmental variables including bioclimatic, physi...
متن کاملClimate change, wine, and conservation.
Climate change is expected to impact ecosystems directly, such as through shifting climatic controls on species ranges, and indirectly, for example through changes in human land use that may result in habitat loss. Shifting patterns of agricultural production in response to climate change have received little attention as a potential impact pathway for ecosystems. Wine grape production provides...
متن کاملPredicting the Effect of Climate Change on the Distribution of Wild Relatives of the Potato Family (Solanaceae) in Iran with Emphasis on Food Security
The Solanaceae family with 49 species of 10 genera is one of the important nutritional, economical, medicinal and ornamental families in which six genera of them are classified in the group of wild relatives. Predicting the effect of climate change on the distribution of plant species is important for their management and conservation. In this study, the effects of climate change on this family...
متن کامل