Humanity on the Threshold A Critical Enquiry

Journal of Futures Studies, November 2005, 10(2): 1 12 For quite some time already, there has been a debate on humanity reaching an evolutionary threshold. This is becoming a hot topic because of the exciting aspects it covers. To start with – humanity reaching a new threshold has a significant dose of drama: it is important, it is challenging and it holds some danger should we fail to be up to it. Secondly, it makes a great subject for passionate debates because of the opposition it generates from different people. There are several reasons why it is so controversial: its own nature is the first cause of quarrel: while for some people this is mostly a cultural phenomenon, for others it goes beyond than that as it has the potential to affect us as a species. Most of the arguments about this issue end without any enlightenment at all because of the normative aspects mixed in; namely, the discussion often is just an excuse to postulate personal preferences. Yet, if humanity is truly approaching a threshold, then it is paramount to know more about it and the defiance it may pose to us. The following pages will be focused to try to determine whether if we are actually attaining such an event or not. Of course, the notion of threshold is rather transcendental in this context. Not just because of all the feelings it conveys, but mostly because of the several relevant features it encloses. Foremost, it signals a point of irreversible change, hence it will create a before and, as you would expect, an afterwards. Even more, the alteration has to be a deep, ontological change, otherwise it could be reversed. Therefore, a threshold is a moment of profound and long-lasting implications with nothing banal or superficial in it. The awareness of this fact, to which is not alien all the mentioned normative loading, provokes a certain sense of momentum that burrs the analysis and hardens the reflection. However, if there has to be any serious attempt to determine if we are approaching such a threshold, the first step should be the assessment of the circumstances that make this historical moment so relevant: namely the challenges that will put humanity to the test. This is, in itself, a problematic endeavour. Any criterion used to discern the true "challengeness" of the selected trends is bound to be problematic and controversial. Acknowledged that, this introduction will use an empirical perspective to depart in this critical query. The classification could prove to be a second endless debate, but for the purpose of this project the challenges will be grouped in the following categories: Population Economy Environment Society Technology Culture Geopolitics It has to be noted that the selection is also the result of available indicators, or, to be more precise, the lack of them at the global level.