Examining Threats to Iconic National Parks through Modeling Global Change, Biocomplexity, and Human Dynamics

Among the factors posing new and complex challenges to coupled natural –human components of iconic parks systems are globalization, climate and environmental change, economic development, population migration, international tourism, land use/land cover dynamics, and political instability of governments and institutions. These challenges are evident in almost all settings and are certainly emerging within and at the edges of iconic national parks (Porter-Bolland et al. 2011; Sieck et al. 2011). Created in part to maintain biodiversity, iconic national parks focus world attention on conservation by representing special places of highly valued and emblematic species, as well as sites of fragile, sensitive, and unique ecosystems (Velarde et al. 2005; Walsh and Mena 2013). Iconic protected species and landscapes, however, are under considerable threat from population migration, economic development, and environmental dynamics, which act synergistically and are exacerbated by climate change (Stolton and Dudley 2010). Iconic national parks are often perceived by the public to be more sensitive to these issues because of their high profile and thus become targets of human interest and concern. Ultimately, the sustainability of these places depends on the adaptive behavior of society, the vulnerability and resilience of the terrestrial and/or marine ecosystems, and the ability of the social system to cope with conflicting demands and feedbacks. Management capacity to deliver sustainable conservation and recreational outcomes is challenged by uncertainty about the internal and external dynamics between elements of the park system as well as global-level exogenous dynamics. In this paper, we propose a biocomplexity framework for exploring the system dynamics of iconic national parks in the context of global change, both environmental and socioeconomic. The biocomplexity framework expands on the conceptual framework of Miller et al. (this issue), and is our foundation for modeling coupled human–natural systems of iconic national park systems. Dynamic systems models are suggested as an integrative and synthetic test-bed. Such models can simulate, predict, and mediate conditions given specified stocks, flows, exchange rates, and feedback loops between key parameters.