Future projection of surface ozone and its impact on crop yield loss over East Asia in 2020
نویسندگان
چکیده
To evaluate the impact of emission change in East Asia on the surface ozone concentration and crop yield loss especially for wheat and rice, we developed a one-way nested global–regional chemical transport model, and conducted 1–year calculations with emission inventories for 2000 and 2020. The model consisted of global and regional CTMs. The global CTM was based on the chemical atmospheric general circulation model for study of atmospheric environment and radiative forcing (CHASER) model, while the regional part is based on the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) /Chem model. We have been also implemented a model which estimates stomatal ozone flux into agricultural crops following to EMEP (European Monitoring and Evaluation Programme) Unified Model, to evaluate exceedance of flux-based critical levels for ozone. The anthropogenic emissions in East Asia were taken from the Regional Emission inventory in ASia (REAS). Phenological data for spring wheat, single rice, and double rice in China, Korea, and Japan are taken from statistical data for each country. Comparison of the modeled surface ozone with ground–based observations in China in 2007 and 2008 showed that the model generally reproduced the seasonal and diurnal variations of ozone at the canopy height. For the horizontal distribution of surface ozone concentration, comparison between 2000 and 2020 revealed an ozone increase of 5–20 ppbv in the North China Plain, where the increase of ozone precursors was most remarkable. Remarkable increase of accumulated ozone flux into wheat during its growing season can be seen in the southern part of China. The maximum increase of AFst6 (accumulated stomatal flux of ozone above threshold of 6 nmol m−2 PLA s−1) was 2.4 mmol/m in Kanton Province. Crop yield loss caused by high ozone concentration was also estimated by using AFst6 and AOT40 (accumulated ozone concentration over threshold of 40 ppbv). Both estimates showed that crop yield loss might increase from 7% to 15% in East Asia. keyword: surface ozone, chemical transport model, future projection, East Asia, crop yield loss
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