A DATABASE TOOL TO SUPPORT PROBABILmC ASSUMPTION-BASED REASONING IN INTELLIGENCE ANALYSIS
نویسنده
چکیده
The Self-Reconciling Evidential Database (SED) is a tool for intelligence analysu that combines a numerical uncertainty calculus with a process of higher-order reasoning about knowledge and assumptions. SED includes (1) a natural representation of evidential arguments in terms of a normal or first-blush reaction to the evidence plus a set of exception conditions, (2) a modeling technique that drastically reduces the number of assessments required to build complex arguments, and (3) a process of resolving conflict among competing arguments by examining and revising assumptions that led to the conflict rather than by statistically aggregating.
منابع مشابه
A Database Tool to Support Probabilistic Assumption-based Reasoning in Intelligence Analysis
The Self-Reconciling Evidential Database (SED) is a tool for intelligence analysts that combines a numerical uncertainty calculus with a process of higher-order reasoning about knowledge and assumptions. SED includes (1) a natural representation of evidential arguments in terms of a normal or firstblush reaction to the evidence plus a set of exception conditions, (2) a modeling technique that d...
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The Self-Reconciling Evidential Database (SED) is a tool for intelligence analysts that combines a numerical uncertainty calculus with a process of higher-order reasoning about knowledge and assumptions. SED includes (1) a natural representation of evidential arguments in terms of a normal or firstblush reaction to the evidence plus a set of exception conditions, (2) a modeling technique that d...
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