Ranking fuzzy cognitive map based scenarios with TOPSIS

Most decision-making processes are dynamic. Critical decisions require multiple and interrelated time-constrained decisions within strongly uncertain and so complex scenarios. The proposed methodology (mixing Delphi, Fuzzy Cognitive Maps and TOPSIS) and is a step forward with regard to the classic tools used in scenarios-based decision-support. This proposal allows managing uncertainty for improving scenarios-based decision-making. FCMs offer visual models for easier understanding by non-technical decision makers, because FCM can express human explicit and tacit knowledge. Moreover, FCM provide an intuitive, yet precise way of expressing concepts and reasoning about them at their natural level of abstraction. By transforming decision modelling into causal graphs, decision makers with no technical background can understand all of the components in a given scenario. In addition, scenarios are ranked using a multicriteria method (TOPSIS).