Predicting goal probabilities for possessions in football
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چکیده
Football analytics has been on the rise, yet no previous efforts have been made to compute the probability a possession becomes a goal, like in basketball. In this paper goal probabilities will be modeled for the English Premier League for the season 2016/2017. Ridged logistic regression with a sliding window approach will be used to model the sequential information in possession chains. Several sizes of sliding windows will be used, as well as recurrent sliding windows. The performance of the models will then be tested using the AUC from the ROC Curve, the Log Loss, and the RMSE. These metrics will then be compared with benchmark models to see if a significant improvement has been made. Finally, a top 15 of players will be deducted from the results, showing the applicability of possession probability models to football clubs.
منابع مشابه
Predicting goal probabilities for possessions in football
Football analytics has been on the rise, yet no previous efforts have been made to compute the probability a possession becomes a goal, like in basketball. In this paper goal probabilities will be modeled for the English Premier League for the season 2016/2017. Ridged logistic regression with a sliding window approach will be used to model the sequential information in possession chains. Severa...
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