Combining regional moist static energy and ENSO for forecasting of early and late season Indian monsoon rainfall and its extremes
نویسندگان
چکیده
We exploit El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) indices and moist static energy of surface air over the Indian subcontinent and surroundings as predictors of monsoon rainfall over India during early and late seasons, defined here as 20 May to 15 June and 20 September to 15 October, respectively. Although these seasons contribute only ~22% of the entire seasonal rainfall, they clearly affect planning of agriculture and water resources. A simple, nonlinear, statistical model applied to these predictors accounts for ~40% and 45% of the observed variance of early and late season rainfall, respectively, and similar fractions for 3 day maximum rainfall intensity. Forecasted average and 3 day maximum rainfall at grid points covering India show greatest success over central India during the early season and over west central, northwestern, and northern India during the late season, regions where agriculture dominates land use. These predictors, however, offer virtually no predictability of peak season rainfall.
منابع مشابه
Pacific Ocean sea-surface temperature variability and predictability of rainfall in the early and late parts of the Indian summer monsoon season
For central India and its west coast, rainfall in the early (15 May–20 June) and late (15 September–20 October) monsoon season correlates with Pacific Ocean sea-surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the preceding month (April and August, respectively) sufficiently well, that those SST anomalies can be used to predict such rainfall. The patterns of SST anomalies that correlate best include the ...
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