Risk Assessment of Regional Irrigation Water Demand and Supply in an Arid Inland River Basin of Northwestern China

Irrigation water demand accounts for more than 95% of the total water use in the Kaidu-kongqi River Basin. Determination of the spatial and temporal trends in irrigation water demand is important for making sustainable and wise water management strategies in this highly water deficit region. In this study, the spatial and temporal trends in irrigation water demand as well as net crop irrigation water requirements for nine major crops during 1985–2009 were analyzed by combining the Penman-Monteith equation recommended by Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and GIS technology. The regional water stress was also evaluated based on the total irrigation water demand and river discharge at the annual and monthly scales. The results indicated that the annual irrigation water demand in this arid region showed a significant increasing trend during the past 25 years. Total irrigation water demand increased from 14.68 × 108 m3 in 1985 to 34.15 × 108 m3 in 2009. The spatial pattern of total irrigation water demand was significantly affected by the changes in cotton growing area. Due to differences in crop planting structure, the monthly average irrigation water demands in Korla City and Yuli County amounted to the peak in July, while those in other regions reached the maximum in June. Although the annual river runoff was much larger than the irrigation water demand, there was serious water deficit during the critical water use period in May and June in some dry years. The presented study OPEN ACCESS Sustainability 2015, 7 12959 provides important information for managers and planners on sustainable use of water resources in this arid region.