Information , Business Survey Forecasts and Measurement of Output Trends in Six European Economies
نویسندگان
چکیده
Direct measures of expectations, derived from survey data, are used in a Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model of actual and expected manufacturing output series in six European economies over the period 1968-1998. No evidence is found with which to reject rationality in the derived expectations series when measurement error is appropriately taken into account. The VAR analysis is used to derive measures of trend output and these measures are compared with the trend obtained using only actual data. The relative merits of the derived series are described with reference to the e±ciency and parsimony of their use of information.
منابع مشابه
Business Survey Forecasts and Measurement of Output Trends
Direct measures of expectations are derived from survey data series in ̄ve European economies over the period 1968-1998. No evidence is found with which to reject rationality in tests applied to these derived series. A Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model of actual and expected output is then used to derive alternative measures of trend output and these measures are compared with the trend obtaine...
متن کاملEffects of European Sovereign Debt (Leverage) Crisis on Bilateral Trade Flows
Outbreak of 2009 European sovereign debt (leverage) crisis has been one of the most crucial economic events of recent years. Accordingly, researchers devoted a great deal of efforts to elucidate origins and consequences of this crisis, particularly focusing on its potential effect on international trade flows. Yet in the literature, there have been rare studies on exploring the effects of sover...
متن کاملForecasting Euro-area Industrial Production Using (mostly)\ Business Surveys Data
In this paper we propose a relatively simple procedure to predict Euro-zone industrial production using mostly data derived from the business surveys of the three major economies within the European Monetary Union (France, Germany, and Italy). The basic idea is that of estimating business cyclical indicators to be used as predictors for the industrial production in France and Germany; as far as...
متن کاملA study of strategy of Small Economies facing the Transition of large Economies Industrial Structure
Taiwan economy has always been export-oriented, creating tightly-linked industrial chains between cross-straits companies tightly. Understanding the influence of transforming industrial patterns of major economic entities would be critical for long-term cooperative small economic entities (countries or regions) in the periphery. The author of this paper has thus analyzed the influences and ...
متن کاملA study of strategy of Small Economies facing the Transition of large Economies Industrial Structure
Taiwan economy has always been export-oriented, creating tightly-linked industrial chains between cross-straits companies tightly. Understanding the influence of transforming industrial patterns of major economic entities would be critical for long-term cooperative small economic entities (countries or regions) in the periphery. The author of this paper has thus analyzed the influences and ...
متن کامل