Prediction Under Uncertainty with Error-Encoding Networks

نویسندگان

  • Mikael Henaff
  • Junbo Jake Zhao
  • Yann LeCun
چکیده

In this work we introduce a new framework for performing temporal predictions in the presence of uncertainty. It is based on a simple idea of disentangling components of the future state which are predictable from those which are inherently unpredictable, and encoding the unpredictable components into a low-dimensional latent variable which is fed into a forward model. Our method uses a supervised training objective which is fast and easy to train. We evaluate it in the context of video prediction on multiple datasets and show that it is able to consistently generate diverse predictions without the need for alternating minimization over a latent space or adversarial training.

برای دانلود متن کامل این مقاله و بیش از 32 میلیون مقاله دیگر ابتدا ثبت نام کنید

ثبت نام

اگر عضو سایت هستید لطفا وارد حساب کاربری خود شوید

منابع مشابه

Uncertainty of Artificial Neural Networks for Daily Evaporation Prediction (Case Study: Rasht and Manjil Stations)

This research uses the multilayer perceptron (MLP) model to predict daily evaporation at two synoptic stations located in Rasht and Manjil, Guilan province, in north-west of Iran. Initially the most important combinations of climatic parameters for both of the stations were identified using the gamma test; and daily evaporation were modeled based on the obtained optimal combination. The results...

متن کامل

Bayes, E-Bayes and Robust Bayes Premium Estimation and Prediction under the Squared Log Error Loss Function

In risk analysis based on Bayesian framework, premium calculation requires specification of a prior distribution for the risk parameter in the heterogeneous portfolio. When the prior knowledge is vague, the E-Bayesian and robust Bayesian analysis can be used to handle the uncertainty in specifying the prior distribution by considering a class of priors instead of a single prior. In th...

متن کامل

Optimal Portfolio Allocation based on two Novel Risk Measures and Genetic Algorithm

The problem of optimal portfolio selection has attracted a great attention in the finance and optimization field. The future stock price should be predicted in an acceptable precision, and a suitable model and criterion for risk and the expected return of the stock portfolio should be proposed in order to solve the optimization problem. In this paper, two new criterions for the risk of stock pr...

متن کامل

Prediction the Return Fluctuations with Artificial Neural Networks' Approach

Time changes of return, inefficiency studies performed and presence of effective factors on share return rate are caused development modern and intelligent methods in estimation and evaluation of share return in stock companies. Aim of this research is prediction of return using financial variables with artificial neural network approach. Therefore, the statistical population of this study incl...

متن کامل

Pupil Dilation Signals Surprise: Evidence for Noradrenaline’s Role in Decision Making

Our decisions are guided by the rewards we expect. These expectations are often based on incomplete knowledge and are thus subject to uncertainty. While the neurophysiology of expected rewards is well understood, less is known about the physiology of uncertainty. We hypothesize that uncertainty, or more specifically errors in judging uncertainty, are reflected in pupil dilation, a marker that h...

متن کامل

ذخیره در منابع من


  با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید

برای دانلود متن کامل این مقاله و بیش از 32 میلیون مقاله دیگر ابتدا ثبت نام کنید

ثبت نام

اگر عضو سایت هستید لطفا وارد حساب کاربری خود شوید

عنوان ژورنال:
  • CoRR

دوره abs/1711.04994  شماره 

صفحات  -

تاریخ انتشار 2017