Propagation of weather forecast uncertainties in flood forecasting A case study on Rhine discharges at Lobith

i Preface This report describes the findings of my master thesis for the section of Water Resources Management of the faculty of Civil Engineering and Geosciences of the Delft University of T e c h n o l o g y (DU T). I h a v e e xe c u t e d th i s r e se a r c h w i t h g re a t p l e a s u r e a t W L | De l f t Hydraulics, who facilitated a work space during the total research period. Research was done on the uncertainties in discharge predictions, induced by weather uncertainties, with emphasis on finding an approach to map these uncertainties in a fast and effective way. The study is a result of a collaboration between the Delft University of Technology, WL | Delft Hydraulics, the Royal Dutch Meteorological Institute (KNMI) and the Institute for Inland Water Management and Waste Water Treatment (RIZA). With respect to the research content, my gratitude goes to my graduation committee and some other helpful people. From WL | Delft Hydraulics, I' d like to thank Ferdinand Diermanse for his daily supervision, especially during the start of my research. Also I' d like to thank Jaap Kwadijk for replacing Ferdinand as my supervisor during his field trips to remote countries. Albrecht Weerts has helped me a lot in getting to know Delft-FEWS and how to work with data files. He has been a terrific coach in hydrological modelling. From TU Delft, I' d like to give my warm thanks to my graduation professor, Huub Savenije, Wim Luxemburg and Hendrik Havinga, with whom I have had very useful conversations. Finally my gratitude goes to Eric Sprokkereef and Helmus van de Langemheen of RIZA and Sander Tijm of KNMI for their support and guidance of my activities. Thanks to them, I was able to present my findings to a broad public. I' d also like to thank Sander Tijm for his expertise on weather models and their performance. I was also supported in a broader sense than just research content by friends and family. I' d like to thank Teun and Miriam for peaceful moments, drinking a cup of coffee at the faculty every now and then. I thank my parents and sisters for their contact and cosiness during my total study time. Finally, …