Accomplishments and Challenges in the Chesapeake Bay Program: Watershed and Estuary Models

The reduction of nutrient over-enrichment (eutrophication) is the most important undertaking in the restoration of the Chesapeake Bay ecosystem. Efforts toward this end are guided and evaluated though extensive use of linked simulation models of the airshed, watershed and estuary. These models track the inputs of nutrients through the watershed and into the bay and predict the consequences to water quality and estuarine food chains. As the Chesapeake Bay Program moves beyond an important milestone—the year 2000—watershed models will have to perform effectively on smaller scales in order to effectively guide land use and waste management decisions. Estuary models will have to more effectively address the effects on higher trophic levels. Advancements in both the watershed and estuary models require a closer coupling among modeling, monitoring and research.