Evaluating pharmaceutical R&D under technical and economic uncertainty
نویسندگان
چکیده
This study sets up a compound option approach for evaluating pharmaceutical R&D investment projects in the presence of technical and economic uncertainties. Technical uncertainty is modeled as a Poisson jump that allows for failure and thus abandonment of the drug development. Economic uncertainty is modeled as a standard di¤usion process which incorporates both up-and downward shocks. Practical application of this method is emphasized through a case analysis. We show that both uncertainties have a positive impact on the R&D option value. Moreover, from the sensitivity analysis, we nd that the sensitivity of the option with respect to economic uncertainty and market introduction cost decreases when technical uncertainty increases. Key words: Compound option; jump-di¤usion process; R&D; Pharmaceutical industry. JEL Classi cation: C 6; G13; G24; G30. Corresponding author. E-mail addresses: [email protected] (E. Pennings), [email protected] (L. Sereno).
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عنوان ژورنال:
- European Journal of Operational Research
دوره 212 شماره
صفحات -
تاریخ انتشار 2011