On The Information Content of Asymmetric FOMC Policy Statements: Evidence From A Taylor-Rule Perspective

Over the past two decades, the FOMC has included in its policy decisions a statement of bias toward subsequent tightening or easing of policy. This paper examines the predictive content of these statements in a Taylor-rule setting, finding that they convey information that is useful for forecasting changes in the federal funds rate target, even after controlling for policy responses to inflation and the output gap. Moreover, the evidence suggests that this asymmetry can be represented in terms of shifts to the parameters of the Taylor-rule equation, indicating a greater or lesser degree of responsiveness to incoming information about inflation and output. *The views expressed in this paper are those of the author, and do not necessarily reflect the official positions of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis or the Federal Reserve System.