Global Transportation Roadmap

The International Council on Clean Transportation is an independent nonprofit organization founded to provide high-quality research and analysis to governments in the world's largest vehicle markets. Our mission is to improve the environmental performance and energy efficiency of road, marine, and air transportation in order to benefit public health and mitigate climate change. For more information on our Global Roadmap, please visit www.theicct.org/transportation-roadmap. SUMMARY The ICCT's Global Transportation Roadmap model is a tool to help policymakers worldwide to identify and understand trends in the transportation sector, assess emission impacts of different policy options, and frame plans to effectively reduce emissions of both greenhouse gases (GHGs) and local air pollutants. It is designed to allow transparent, customizable estimation of transportation emissions for a broad range of policy cases. The Roadmap model estimates changes in actual transportation activity by country and region based on changes in forecasts of population, Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and relative fuel prices. Country estimates of future transportation activity are then split by mode using dynamic mode share assumptions to calculate GHG and local air pollutant emissions. Results are summarized on an output tab, which enables comparisons between cases, modes, and countries, and a country dashboard tab, which tabulates numerous estimates for any selected country/region. This document describes the scope, structure, and functionality of the Roadmap model, which is a spreadsheet tool developed in Microsoft Excel. The report begins with an introduction to the model scope and structure, which is designed to equip the user to modify policy parameters, customize model outputs, and interpret results appropriately. The report continues with a documentation of the seven major modules that make up the spreadsheet tool. This second section is designed to allow interested users to better understand the model inputs, calculations, assumptions, and data sources. Throughout the documentation, the following symbols are used to denote warnings, tips, and calculations. The Roadmap model estimates total transportation activity, mode shares and emissions from 2000 to 2050 in five-year increments, including Well-to-Wheel (WTW) emissions of GHGs and local air pollutants from on-road vehicles, locomotives, aircraft, and marine vessels. The following table describes the specific modes, geographic regions, forecast years, pollutants, vehicle technologies, fuel types, and cases covered by the Roadmap model. Geographic regions The geographical focus is on the 11 countries/regions with greatest annual new vehicle sales: United States, EU-27 (27 member states included in the BC, and SO2). The Roadmap's calculations of …