Iccrts 2006

This paper explains the concept of temporal convergence in the context of the time-value of knowledge. We explore epistemological aspects of knowledge/information management through notions of human cognitive awareness and mental models by which we may share situational knowledge and common intentions. We explore the temporal relationships of information (lag, reiteration, timeliness, lifetime and obsolescence) to decision-making based on shared intentions and desired end-states. Temporal convergence is associated with a human construct of retrogressive linear time and sequential actions taken leading to a planned event; much like the timely execution of a launch sequence of necessary actions, activities and checks during the count-down to a rocket launch. An individual, or a team of like-minded individuals, may deem a desired future state or goal to be set firmly at a future time (as if it has already happened) while working in the present to make it so; correcting any misalignment in the immediate chain-of-events that may skew the planned way forward to the desired end state. Generally, temporal convergence describes the process of realising a human cognitive goal in the more “distant” future. Moreover, temporal convergence needs to be considered in parallel with temporal divergence where temporal divergence is a representation of the near future as an expanding set of possibilities originating from one fixed reality, the present moment. We developed the concept of temporal convergence as a model to help us informationand knowledge-management theory to some of the complex military processes addressed under Network-Centric Warfare, such as: command direction and intent; team self-synchronization; endgame focused “Course of Action”; taking an effects-based [combined] approach; shaping a the environment, and shared situational awareness. INTRODUCTION This paper describes the concept of temporal convergence, in the context of the time-value of knowledge. In so doing, we may better understand the base requirements for shared situational awareness and distributed decision-making. Temporal convergence describes the process of real-time creativity, whereby the timely and sequential exercise of intentional action is applied to achieve a predetermined objective outcome or end-state; essentially, to “make it so”! This is in accord with Karl Popper’s notion of Oedipus Effect 2 in the sense of a prediction that, in being made, actually causes itself to become true. In our case however, it is the predictor’s timely actions (by a person, or a collective of people who believe in the prediction) that, after the prediction has been stated, actually cause the prediction to come true. If one is true to one’s word (absolutely reliable and determined), with the power and opportunity to make one’s claim happen (in real-time), then the realisation of a future prediction or intention may be deemed to be inevitable. The term temporal convergence embraces this concept, wherein the future becomes the central reality and the present merely the instrument of affecting that reality. The French phrase “fait accompli” (accomplished [future] fact) also well describes the concept. In general, temporal convergence applies to the process of realising a human cognitive goal in the more “distant” future. However, if by frustration or contingency one cannot do as intended (e.g. a change in the environmental conditions, or a loss of power, or the opportunity), one simply fails. The desired end-state was not so when it was meant to be. But, the mind-set of self-realised future intentions or goals cannot stand alone: there is also the present to deal with. Whereas temporal convergence readily applies to the “big picture”, it is not helpful in dealing with the issues and conditions that surround our present and near-future state or situation. We need a more linear cause-effect (deterministic) mind-set to help inform our decision-making in the present while we concurrently hold in mind our intended future situation. That is, we work our actions in the present to both: (a) effect/shape ourselves and the future environment to converge on a “more distant” desired end-state (temporal convergence), and (b) manage the unfolding moment-by-moment situation, based on the immediate past. This cause-effect sense of events, expanding before us in time as we gauge and project what is most likely to follow from the immediate past and present, is herein described as temporal divergence. Temporal divergence best applies to the “near” future, scoped by an event horizon based on our limited mental ability to process and understand the microcosm of our present circumstances and our ability to deterministically project the same into the future. 1 Dalmaris P., Hall W.P. and Philp W.R. (2006) “The time-value of knowledge: a temporal qualification of knowledge, its issues, and role in the improvement of knowledge intense business processes”, Proc. 3 AsiaPacific International Conference on Knowledge Management (KMAP06), Hong Kong, 11-13 Dec 2006. 2 "One of the ideas I had discussed in The Poverty [of Historicism] was the influence of a prediction upon the event predicted. I had called this the "Oedipus effect", because the oracle played a most important role in the sequence of events which led to the fulfilment of its prophecy. . . . For a time I though that the existence of the Oedipus effect distinguished the social from the natural sciences. But in biology too -even in molecular biology --expectations often play a role in bringing about what has been expected" Karl Popper (1976), “Unended Quest: An Intellectual Autobiography”, Open Court Publishing Company, La Salle, Ill., 1982. An interesting condition exists when the event horizon for our mindset of temporal divergence approaches (as time progresses) the proximity of our intended future end-state. In this case hope reveals its substance in reality. It is at this stage that deliberate planning is replaced by immediate planning and we (the collective of people who believe in the prediction) wrestle with the probability of success or failure. The closer in time we get to our desired future state, the less degrees of freedom we have, the more important the “time to take effect” becomes and the greater the likelihood of failure if we over/under estimate the spatial or temporal effect of our actions. It may be that the rate or magnitude of environmental variation exceeds our capacity to respond such that we can no long reach our desired future state in time... in which case we have failed. Although interesting, the meeting of divergent and convergent mental models will not be addressed further in this paper, although it is the subject of ongoing research by the authors. The development of these concepts has been found necessary in the formalisation of Information Exchange Requirements (IERs) for military decision-making within the paradigm of Network-Centric Warfare (NCW). It is intuitively apparent that two different knowledgebases are needed for NCW distributed decision-making; (a) detailed knowledge and change information about a particular tactical situation in a warfighting environment (for which temporal divergence well applies), and (b) relevant knowledge and change update about the cooperative and combined progress of different force-elements toward a operational-level military objective (applied temporal convergence). Both knowledge sets are spatially consistent, but rarely the same: the time (temporal) parameters and the scale/resolution of the two are quite different. The tactical situation requires detailed knowledge about the microcosm of local cause and effect, where that knowledge has a finite (mostly short) lifetime or relevance in a dynamically changing environment. The temporal nature of information reiteration/update, reliability, lifetime, lag/latency, sequence, timeliness and obsolescence are critical as immediate events unfold in a deterministic, but dynamic, way. On the other hand, the operational-level picture of “how goes the battle?” has quite different time-dependent parameters. If naively one were to impose an operational-level mindset upon soldiers engaged in a tactical mission through a “common operating picture” or an automated “shared situational awareness” system, or conversely, a tactical mindset was imposed upon the mental image of an operational-level commander, confusion would inevitably result. Temporal convergence, as a mindset shared by a team in support a commander’s intentions, is necessary to support NCW military concepts such as: • Self Synchronisation, • Effects based approach, • Combined effects, • Shared situation awareness, • Focus of wills. Prior to commencing an operational-level campaign plan, the military staff team, would initially have a shared future reality of the culmination point 3 and the operational end-state. There would be an agreed course of action that would reflect how the assigned task force would behave to achieve that end state. Once forces were committed, the initiated plan has momentum and orientation toward the goal(s). The job of the operational commander is now to modify, in real-time, the trajectory of combined battlespace effects so as to maintain course and focus in the presence of enemy interference/deflection/obstruction. The instrument to actualise the realtime corrective bias effect is the tactical commander. The tactical commander is temporally 3 The point in a battle/war following which an enemy is no longer able to mount or maintain a successful offensive divergent in his immediate actions and temporally convergent in effecting his commander’s intent. This paper attempts to formalise the concepts of temporal convergence and temporal divergence for ongoing application to the domain of NCW; especially, in the focus areas of Command, Control, Communications and Intelligence (C3I) and Intelligence, Surveillance, Target Acquisition and Reconnaissance (ISTAR).