Marriage Market Implications of the Demographic Transition

We present international evidence on the marriage market implications of cohort size growth, and set out a theoretical model of how marriage markets adjust to imbalances. Since men marry younger women, secular growth in cohort size in the second phase of the demographic transition worsens the position of women. This e¤ect has been substantial in many Asian countries earlier, and continues to be true in sub-Saharan Africa. Secular decline in cohort sizes in phase III, as is happening in East Asia, improves the position of women. We show that the age gap at marriage will not adjust in order to equilibrate the marriage market in response to persistent imbalances, even though it accommodates transitory shocks. This is true under transferable utility even if age preferences are relatively minor, as well as non-transferable utility. JEL Categories: J12, J13, J16