Pathways to Trump: Republican Primary Voters in 2016

نویسندگان

  • Betsy Sinclair
  • Steven S. Smith
  • Michelle Torres
  • Patrick D. Tucker
چکیده

The candidacy of Donald Trump has drawn considerable social science interest as a way to understand the interplay between attitudinal explanations, covariates, and momentum. In particular, arguments about the working class, personality, race, populism and Trump’s domination of the media serve as competing (but not mutually exclusive) explanations for Trump’s electoral success. In this paper we rely upon a unique monthly panel dataset to explore changing support for Republican presidential candidates over the primary season, test competing theories regarding the attitudinal shifts that propelled the Trump candidacy forward, and evaluate the influence of perceptions of success that respondents held about Trump and the decision to support him during the primaries.

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تاریخ انتشار 2017