Analysis of a Hand-Foot-Mouth Disease Model with Standard Incidence Rate and Estimation for Basic Reproduction Number
نویسندگان
چکیده
Firstly, an SEIR mathematical model with standard incidence rate is established to describe the transmission of Hand-Foot-Mouth disease (HFMD). The equilibrium of the nondimensionalized model is calculated and the basic reproduction number of the model is defined. In addition, the local stability of the equilibrium is analyzed via the characteristic roots of the Jacobian matrix at the equilibrium, respectively. Numerical simulations are given to confirm the theoretical results. Secondly, a formula aimed to estimate the basic reproduction number of the transmission of HFMD is deduced. As examples to make use of the formula, the basic reproduction number of the HFMD transmission of Singapore of years 2015 and 2016 is estimated based on the newly infected cases notified by the surveillance organizations, respectively. The formula can realize real time estimation for the basic reproduction number and does not need to estimate the transmission efficiency of HFMD between individuals.
منابع مشابه
Optimal Control of Hand, Foot and Mouth Disease Model using Variational Iteration Method
In this paper, the optimal control of transmission dynamics of hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD), formulated by a compartmental deterministic SEIPR (Susceptible-Incubation (Exposed)- Infected - Post infection virus shedding - Recovered) model with vaccination and treatment as control parameters is considered. The objective function is based on the combination of minimizing the number of infec...
متن کاملThe analysis of a disease-free equilibrium of Hepatitis B model
In this paper we study the dynamics of Hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection under administration of a vaccine and treatment, where the disease is transmitted directly from the parents to the offspring and also through contact with infective individuals. Stability of the disease-free steady state is investigated. The basic reproductive rate, $R_0$, is derived. The results show that the dynamics of...
متن کاملStability Analysis and Optimal Control of Vaccination and Treatment of a SIR Epidemiological Deterministic Model with Relapse
In this paper, we studied and formulated the relapsed SIR model of a constant size population with standard incidence rate. Also, the optimal control problem with treatment and vaccination as controls, subject to the model is formulated. The analysis carried out on the model, clearly showed that the infection free steady state is globally asymptotically stable if the bas...
متن کاملModelling the effects of contaminated environments on HFMD infections in mainland China
Hand-foot-mouth disease (HFMD) has spread widely in mainland China increasing in prevalence in most years with serious consequences for child health. The HFMD virus can survive for a long period outside the host in suitable conditions, and hence contaminated environments may play important roles in HFMD infection. A new mathematical model was proposed and used to investigate the roles that asym...
متن کاملEstimation of Basic Reproduction Number of Enterovirus 71, Coxsackievirus A6 and A16 in Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease Outbreaks in Singapore
and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
متن کامل