The Sooner, the Better: Modeling Evolutionary Recovery following Isolated Incidents of Environmental Pollution

Accidental release of mutagenic pollutants is a major problem associated with industrial production. Numerous studies have demonstrated the stark effects of oil spills and nuclear power plant accidents on mutation rates in populations, but the long-term recovery of populations following the cleanup of these messes has not been well characterized. In this study we explored the relationship between the length of a period of pollution and the extent of population normalization following three different length periods of recovery utilizing the simulation software Aipotu. The period of pollution was modeled with an increased mutation rate and the recovery period was modeled by a return to the baseline, lower mutation rate, representing the normal mutation rate in a population without environmental pollution. We found that more members of the population carried phenotypic mutations following longer periods of simulated pollution, and the extent of recovery was not as complete for the experiments with longer pollution times as for scenarios with shorter pollution times. This suggests that speed of cleanup is of the essence when responding to an incident of environmental pollution.