Multiscale modelling in real-time flood forecasting systems: From sand grain to dike failure and inundation

Severe events around the globe have highlighted the threat to life, infrastructure and the environment posed by flooding. Flood forecasting systems are a vital component of broader flood risk management activities. These systems are becoming increasingly more sophisticated as their importance in reducing life loss and economic damages is realized. Part of this increase in complexity is focused on the ability to predict and warn of failures in dykes, levees and embankments. A new European ICT project, UrbanFlood for Environmental Services and Climate Change Adaptation, has recently been commissioned and is introduced in this presentation. The primary objective of the Urban Flood project is to develop early warning systems that will monitor flood protection systems in real-time, identify vulnerable locations, model the failure and predict dike collapse and subsequent inundation. In combination with the damage assessment, Urban Flood will serve as an advanced decision support system, mitigating the impact of seasonal and catastrophic floods. Modeling is one of the key tasks in the project. The models will be required to simulate the behavior of the material properties of the layered dikes (sand, clay, peat, grass or concrete cover, metal frame, dam gates, etc.), during extreme hydraulic loading events. In earthen dikes, extra challenge is posed by the non-linear elastic plastic properties of the deformable clay. A realistic simulation of the dike will model the free-surface water dynamics; convective and diffusive transfer of water inside the porous materials; dynamic response of clay to the water pressure; structural mechanics, deformation and actual dike breakdown and flood. The models shall cover a wide range of scales from a sand grain to a flooded city. The time scales will range from seconds (for water penetrating the soil) to hours (for dike collapse dynamics and ocean tides). Eventually, the models will predict the influence of seasonal and global changes on the stability of flood defense systems. Full 3D transient simulation of dike failure with subsequent inundation will require significant computing resources. The project started three months ago, and we will present the plan for developing the modeling cascade for the system. This work is supported by the UrbanFlood European Union project N 248767, theme ICT-2009.6.4