Dynamic Simulation of Air Cargo Demand Forecast
نویسندگان
چکیده
This paper establishes an approach to forecast air cargo demand related to terminal capacity expansion. To balance capacity and demand, it is required to forecast the future demand based on optimistic and pessimistic projections to decide when and how much, the airport should expand the capacity. System dynamics simulation model can provide reliable forecast and generate scenarios to test alternative assumptions and decisions. It was found that GDP and FDI play an important role in fostering the demand. Terminal expansion would be required in 2014 and 2021 at the optimistic projection; meanwhile, based on pessimistic projection, capacity should be expanded in 2025.
منابع مشابه
Dynamic simulation model of air cargo demand forecast and terminal capacity planning
This paper establishes an approach to forecast air cargo demand related to terminal capacity expansion. To balance capacity and demand, it is required to forecast the future demand based on optimistic and pessimistic projections to decide when and how much, the airport should expand the capacity. System dynamics simulation model can provide reliable forecast and generate scenarios to test alter...
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