Using Multi-level Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation to Assess Reservoir Induced Seismic Risk

Reservoir-induced seismicity is a very important issue in the study of geological analysis and ecoenvironmental impact assessment in hydraulic and hydropower engineering. On the other hand, reservoir-induced seismicity is a necessary consideration in the feasibility study of hydropower project. Due to the complexity in the process of reservoir-induced earthquake and the uncertainty of the influencing factor, the risk assessment can be viewed as a multiple-attribute decision process. Therefore, this paper aims to provide a forecasting approach towards reservoir induced seismicity, in which two phase procedures are proposed. The first stage utilizes analytic hierarchy process (AHP) to obtain the weights of influencing factors, in the second stage fuzzy comprehensive evaluation (FCE) is applied to determine the dangerous class which a reservoir belongs to. This study establishes a hierarchical model in reservoir-induced seismicity risk assessment, realizes the transformation from qualitative analysis to quantitative analysis. In addition, a case study is also presented to make this application more understandable. It shows that the multi-level fuzzy comprehensive evaluation is very effective in the reservoir induced seismicity risk assessment.